Sample report · public

Gender disparity in TS Sala Penal sentencing, 2020–2024.

Reproducing a published finding to demonstrate the JurisLens report format.

n = 412Tribunal Supremo · Sala Penalaxis: defendant_gendersha: 9f2c…a04e

Verdict — Statistically significant disparity

Controlling for charge severity and prior record, female defendants receive sentences on average 3.5 months longer than male defendants for comparable charges (p = 0.002, Cohen's d = 0.41).

§1 Methodology

How the corpus was built.

· CENDOJ query: Organo=TS Sala Penal · Fecha=2020-01..2024-12 · Tipo=Sentencia
· 412 rulings retrieved, 0 excluded, deduplicated by CENDOJ ID
· Source PDFs cached; SHA-256 of corpus: 9f2c…a04e
· Defendant gender classified by LLM (Gemini 2.5 Flash) with paragraph-level citations; 100% reviewed
· Statistics computed in deterministic server code (no LLM in math)

§2 Descriptive statistics

The raw numbers.

Group	n	Mean sentence (mo)	Median	SD
Male defendants	331	42.1	36	28.4
Female defendants	81	45.6	40	30.1

§3 Inferential test

Is the gap real?

Welch's two-sample t-test on log-transformed sentence length, controlled for charge class via OLS regression.

t(189.4) = 3.12

p = 0.002

95% CI on Δmean = [1.3, 5.7] months

Cohen's d = 0.41 (small-to-medium effect)

§4 Language analysis

How rulings are framed.

LLM-scored aggravating vs mitigating language density, validated against a hand-coded sample (κ = 0.81).

+38% more frequent use of "calculadora", "fría", "premeditación" in rulings against female defendants.cf. STS 412/2022 ¶14 · STS 88/2023 ¶21
-12% use of mitigating framings ("arrepentimiento", "colaboración") in rulings against female defendants.

§5 Outlier cases

The rulings driving the effect.

STS 412/2022 — homicidio dolosoCENDOJ
STS 88/2023 — estafa agravadaCENDOJ
STS 901/2021 — lesionesCENDOJ

§6 Limitations

What this doesn't prove.

· Charge severity is approximated; finer-grained controls (priors, victim count) not modelled.
· Sample skewed by appellate selection — TS hears the hardest cases.
· No causal claim. Disparity ≠ discrimination; structural factors uncontrolled.

§7 Reproduce this

Anyone can rerun this study.

POST /api/studies
{
  "court": "Tribunal Supremo — Sala de lo Penal",
  "topic": null,
  "date_from": "2020-01-01",
  "date_to":   "2024-12-31",
  "comparison_axis": "defendant_gender",
  "sample_cap": 412
}

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